Scouting Report
Oliver Moore holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Moore on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Moore shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.6% vs Moore 48.9% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Moore 71.6%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 67.5%
Neutral zone
Moore 64.1%
Result
Oliver Moore favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Sourdif
Moore
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Sourdif
Moore
Last 5: Sourdif 3-2 Moore
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
0
Sourdif
Moore
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
0
Sourdif
Moore
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Moore
1
2
Sourdif
Moore
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Moore
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (585)
50.3% (187)
-6.0%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
33.3% (15)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
0.0% (3)
+61.5%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +61.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Moore shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Sourdif shoots right. Moore is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Moore
Home
43.6% (321)
52.3% (132)
Away
46.2% (301)
41.1% (73)
By Period
Sourdif
Moore
P1
41.9%
44.3%
P2
44.3%
54.2%
P3
47.9%
46.5%
OT
100.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Moore
38.0%▼
48.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 08:29 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 2 | 12:38 | Neutral | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 2 | 02:08 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 14:11 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:17 | Neutral | Oliver Moore |