Scouting Report
Oliver Moore holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Moore on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Moore shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.6% vs Moore 48.2% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Moore 67.3%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 69.5%
Neutral zone
Moore 61.0%
Result
Oliver Moore favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Sourdif
Moore
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Sourdif
Moore
Last 5: Sourdif 3-2 Moore
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
0
Sourdif
Moore
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
0
Sourdif
Moore
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Moore
1
2
Sourdif
Moore
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Moore
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (585)
49.1% (212)
-4.8%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
31.3% (16)
+18.7%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
25.0% (4)
+36.5%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +36.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Moore shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Sourdif shoots right. Moore is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (70).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Moore
Home
43.6% (321)
50.4% (141)
Away
46.2% (301)
42.9% (91)
By Period
Sourdif
Moore
P1
41.9%
44.7%
P2
44.3%
49.3%
P3
47.9%
48.1%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Moore
38.0%▼
48.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 08:29 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 2 | 12:38 | Neutral | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 2 | 02:08 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 14:11 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:17 | Neutral | Oliver Moore |