Scouting Report
Keegan Kolesar holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Gregor on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kolesar wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gregor shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kolesar 43.3% vs Gregor 40.4% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gregor 52.6%
Defensive zone
Gregor 52.3%
Neutral zone
Gregor 54.8%
Result
Noah Gregor favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Kolesar
Gregor
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kolesar
Gregor
Last 5: Kolesar 2-3 Gregor
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gregor
1
2
Kolesar
Gregor
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kolesar
1
0
Kolesar
Gregor
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gregor
0
1
Kolesar
Gregor
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kolesar
Gregor
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (383)
36.6% (202)
+5.2%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
28.6% (14)
+21.4%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
0.0% (1)
+35.3%
On penalty kill, Kolesar has a +35.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gregor shoots left. Kolesar is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Kolesar shoots right. Gregor is 38.5% vs right-shot opponents (91).
Home / Away
Kolesar
Gregor
Home
38.0% (192)
36.2% (116)
Away
44.9% (214)
35.6% (101)
By Period
Kolesar
Gregor
P1
42.1%
36.8%
P2
43.2%
28.0%
P3
38.9%
45.5%
Final 5 min
42.4%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kolesar
38.0%▬
38.0%
41.6%
Gregor
40.0%▲
36.0%
35.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2021 | 3 | 04:10 | Neutral | Noah Gregor |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Noah Gregor |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 17:12 | Offensive | Noah Gregor |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 09:19 | Offensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Keegan Kolesar |