Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kolesar on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kolesar 43.3% vs Carrick 52.2% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kolesar 66.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 87.7%
Neutral zone
Carrick 69.6%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Kolesar
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Kolesar
Carrick
Last 9: Kolesar 5-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Kolesar
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kolesar
4
2
Kolesar
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kolesar
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (383)
52.2% (2,544)
-10.4%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
61.3% (75)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
50.8% (435)
-15.5%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Kolesar is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Kolesar shoots right. Carrick is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (843).
Home / Away
Kolesar
Carrick
Home
38.0% (192)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
44.9% (214)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Kolesar
Carrick
P1
42.1%
51.8%
P2
43.2%
52.3%
P3
38.9%
52.6%
Final 5 min
42.4%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kolesar
38.0%▬
38.0%
41.6%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:01 | Offensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 04:01 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 03:49 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 09:39 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 06:37 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 06:31 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 03:20 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 1 | 01:59 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |