Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 52.2%). Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs Eller 51.9% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 56.4%
Defensive zone
Eller 65.2%
Neutral zone
Eller 57.1%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Hayes
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Hayes
Eller
Last 6: Hayes 5-1 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
1
Hayes
Eller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
0
Hayes
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
52.8% (650)
-1.2%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
69.2% (13)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
45.5% (88)
+14.5%
On power play, Eller has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Hayes is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Hayes shoots left. Eller is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Hayes
Eller
Home
50.5% (200)
52.6% (340)
Away
53.4% (253)
51.8% (411)
By Period
Hayes
Eller
P1
58.8%
52.4%
P2
49.3%
54.1%
P3
48.0%
50.0%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:27 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:30 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:43 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 02:12 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |