Scouting Report
Nick Schmaltz holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 31.3% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 42.7% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 73.4%
Defensive zone
Hayes 55.7%
Neutral zone
Hayes 52.8%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Hayes
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hayes
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Hayes
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
31.9% (91)
45.9% (697)
-14.0%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
47.9% (117)
+16.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
48.0% (25)
-48.0%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +48.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Hayes is 31.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Hayes shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Hayes
Schmaltz
Home
30.6% (49)
44.9% (434)
Away
40.4% (57)
47.7% (405)
By Period
Hayes
Schmaltz
P1
22.9%
41.5%
P2
40.0%
46.7%
P3
44.4%
51.1%
Final 5 min
30.4%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |