Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Schmaltz 42.6% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 15-8 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 57.7%
Defensive zone
Hayes 89.5%
Neutral zone
Hayes 80.5%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Hayes
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
8
(23 meetings)
15
8
Hayes
Schmaltz
Last 10: Hayes 8-2 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
4
5
Hayes
Schmaltz
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
7
2
Hayes
Schmaltz
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
1
Hayes
Schmaltz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
41.3% (3,431)
+6.2%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
47.3% (655)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
47.4% (135)
-2.1%
On even strength, Hayes has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,049).
Home / Away
Hayes
Schmaltz
Home
48.1% (3,982)
42.8% (2,114)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
42.0% (2,107)
By Period
Hayes
Schmaltz
P1
47.5%
41.3%
P2
47.6%
42.8%
P3
47.9%
43.1%
OT
54.1%
42.4%
Final 5 min
49.3%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 04:53 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:09 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 11:58 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 2 | 06:12 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 1 | 12:20 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 14, 2018 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 3 | 19:44 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 3 | 01:07 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 3 | 00:51 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 1 | 14:37 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 15, 2017 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |