Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Poehling 49.2% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poehling 51.7%
Defensive zone
Poehling 52.5%
Neutral zone
Poehling 51.5%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Hayes
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hayes
Poehling
Last 5: Hayes 2-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
0
Hayes
Poehling
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
3
Hayes
Poehling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
50.4% (752)
+6.2%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
37.0% (27)
+20.0%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
45.3% (159)
+20.4%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Hayes shoots left. Poehling is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Home / Away
Hayes
Poehling
Home
58.0% (405)
51.2% (467)
Away
56.1% (433)
47.1% (471)
By Period
Hayes
Poehling
P1
54.7%
54.6%
P2
55.7%
46.7%
P3
60.2%
46.7%
OT
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
58.9%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
57.0%
Poehling
58.0%▲
46.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2024 | 1 | 01:52 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:34 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:22 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 08:05 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 07:59 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |