Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Eller 50.5% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 73.6%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 55.3%
Neutral zone
Eller 58.7%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Stenlund
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Stenlund
Eller
Last 10: Stenlund 5-5 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
4
Stenlund
Eller
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
4
Stenlund
Eller
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
1
Stenlund
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
51.1% (10,321)
+4.2%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
52.8% (621)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
46.6% (1,759)
+3.8%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Stenlund shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,587).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Eller
Home
54.3% (1,873)
51.4% (6,122)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
49.7% (6,607)
By Period
Stenlund
Eller
P1
56.2%
51.2%
P2
53.3%
50.1%
P3
53.0%
50.2%
OT
52.9%
56.7%
Final 5 min
53.4%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:16 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 05:19 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:36 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:03 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 12:47 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:35 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 14:42 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:42 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 3 | 03:44 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 1 | 14:32 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 09:39 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 08:51 | Defensive | Lars Eller |