Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs Carlsson 44.6% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 58.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 95.6%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 78.2%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 80.1%
80.1%
19.9%
Stenlund
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Stenlund
Carlsson
Last 7: Stenlund 5-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stenlund
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
1
Stenlund
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (650)
45.0% (695)
+11.2%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
46.4% (84)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (312)
32.9% (85)
+18.7%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Stenlund shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Carlsson
Home
56.9% (483)
42.5% (435)
Away
52.5% (526)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Stenlund
Carlsson
P1
54.2%
45.3%
P2
53.2%
38.7%
P3
56.9%
48.5%
OT
42.1%
41.7%
Final 5 min
57.5%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 05:30 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 07:35 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |