Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Carlsson 41.1% (+13.3%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Stenlund 81.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 98.4%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 95.2%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 93.5%
93.5%
6.5%
Stenlund
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
3
(15 meetings)
12
3
Stenlund
Carlsson
Last 10: Stenlund 8-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
1
Stenlund
Carlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
7
2
Stenlund
Carlsson
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
40.9% (1,878)
+14.4%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
42.9% (156)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
34.7% (121)
+15.7%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Stenlund shoots right. Carlsson is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Carlsson
Home
54.3% (1,873)
42.2% (1,051)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
39.2% (1,104)
By Period
Stenlund
Carlsson
P1
56.2%
43.3%
P2
53.3%
36.2%
P3
53.0%
43.3%
OT
52.9%
40.7%
Final 5 min
53.4%
39.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 17, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 05:30 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 07:35 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 04:39 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 19:59 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 01:56 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 16:24 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |