Kevin Stenlund vs Michael McCarron
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs McCarron 52.1% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 54.0%
Defensive zone
McCarron 61.1%
Neutral zone
McCarron 61.0%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
Stenlund
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Stenlund
McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
3
Stenlund
McCarron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (650)
52.8% (697)
+3.4%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
18.2% (11)
+35.0%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (312)
52.6% (211)
-1.0%
On power play, Stenlund has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Stenlund is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Stenlund shoots right. McCarron is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Stenlund
McCarron
Home
56.9% (483)
52.8% (477)
Away
52.5% (526)
51.8% (442)
By Period
Stenlund
McCarron
P1
54.2%
56.2%
P2
53.2%
52.4%
P3
56.9%
48.7%
OT
42.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:28 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 15:36 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 05:13 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |