Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs Frost 56.4% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 86.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 87.5%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 50.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Stenlund
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Stenlund
Frost
Last 5: Stenlund 2-3 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
3
Stenlund
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (650)
56.0% (755)
+0.2%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
60.1% (173)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (312)
88.9% (9)
-37.3%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +37.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Stenlund shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Frost
Home
56.9% (483)
57.3% (497)
Away
52.5% (526)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Stenlund
Frost
P1
54.2%
60.2%
P2
53.2%
56.0%
P3
56.9%
54.8%
OT
42.1%
63.6%
Final 5 min
57.5%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |