Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Frost 50.5% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 15-10 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 85.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 73.5%
Neutral zone
Frost 55.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Stenlund
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
15
(25 meetings)
10
15
Stenlund
Frost
Last 10: Stenlund 5-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
11
Stenlund
Frost
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
6
1
Stenlund
Frost
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
4
3
Stenlund
Frost
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
49.6% (3,642)
+5.7%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
55.5% (631)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
55.0% (40)
-4.6%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Stenlund shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,481).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Frost
Home
54.3% (1,873)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Stenlund
Frost
P1
56.2%
51.1%
P2
53.3%
51.3%
P3
53.0%
48.7%
OT
52.9%
64.9%
Final 5 min
53.4%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 11:29 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 17:44 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 08:45 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 08:39 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 15:30 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 07:20 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 14:16 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 05:54 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 05:51 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 14:35 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |