Kevin Stenlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 22-15 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 89.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 70.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 63.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 64.6%
35.4%
64.6%
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
22
(37 meetings)
15
22
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Last 10: Stenlund 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
12
Stenlund
MacKinnon
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
6
5
Stenlund
MacKinnon
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Stenlund
MacKinnon
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (650)
49.7% (1,038)
+6.5%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
63.7% (157)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (312)
34.4% (32)
+17.2%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stenlund is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Stenlund shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Home
56.9% (483)
53.1% (618)
Away
52.5% (526)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Stenlund
MacKinnon
P1
54.2%
49.3%
P2
53.2%
53.0%
P3
56.9%
50.7%
OT
42.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:17 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:07 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 12:16 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |