Kevin Stenlund vs Nathan MacKinnon

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Kevin Stenlund holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 23 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Stenlund 53.9% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+7.2%)
H2H factor MacKinnon leads 31-22 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone MacKinnon 89.6%
Defensive zone MacKinnon 60.5%
Neutral zone MacKinnon 73.1%
Result Nathan MacKinnon favored at 76.4%
23.6%
76.4%
Stenlund MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
22 - 31 (53 meetings)
22
31
Stenlund MacKinnon
Last 10: Stenlund 5-5 MacKinnon

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
9
14
Stenlund MacKinnon
23 total
Defensive Zone
Even
8
8
Stenlund MacKinnon
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
9
Stenlund MacKinnon
14 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
46.1% (11,264)
+9.2%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
53.2% (1,421)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
42.8% (502)
+7.6%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +9.2% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stenlund is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (932).
Stenlund shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,651).
Home / Away
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Home
54.3% (1,873)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Stenlund
MacKinnon
P1
56.2%
47.4%
P2
53.3%
46.6%
P3
53.0%
46.1%
OT
52.9%
48.4%
Final 5 min
53.4%
49.1%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%
59.0%
54.0%
MacKinnon
44.0%
50.5%
46.8%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Dec 23, 2025 3 19:36 Offensive Kevin Stenlund
Dec 23, 2025 2 12:39 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Dec 23, 2025 1 14:14 Defensive Kevin Stenlund
Dec 23, 2025 1 14:04 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 21, 2025 3 19:52 Defensive Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 21, 2025 3 18:03 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 21, 2025 3 14:55 Defensive Kevin Stenlund
Oct 21, 2025 3 00:00 Neutral Kevin Stenlund
Oct 21, 2025 2 18:53 Defensive Kevin Stenlund
Oct 21, 2025 2 18:47 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 21, 2025 2 09:31 Offensive Kevin Stenlund
Oct 21, 2025 2 09:22 Defensive Kevin Stenlund
Oct 21, 2025 2 09:17 Neutral Kevin Stenlund
Oct 21, 2025 2 07:12 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 21, 2025 2 04:07 Defensive Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 9, 2025 3 19:27 Offensive Kevin Stenlund
Oct 9, 2025 3 19:07 Offensive Kevin Stenlund
Oct 9, 2025 3 19:00 Defensive Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 9, 2025 3 18:33 Defensive Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 9, 2025 3 12:16 Defensive Kevin Stenlund