Kevin Stenlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 31-22 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 89.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 60.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 73.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 76.4%
23.6%
76.4%
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
31
(53 meetings)
22
31
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Last 10: Stenlund 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
9
14
Stenlund
MacKinnon
23 total
Defensive Zone
Even
8
8
Stenlund
MacKinnon
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
9
Stenlund
MacKinnon
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
46.1% (11,264)
+9.2%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
53.2% (1,421)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
42.8% (502)
+7.6%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stenlund is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (932).
Stenlund shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,651).
Home / Away
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Home
54.3% (1,873)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Stenlund
MacKinnon
P1
56.2%
47.4%
P2
53.3%
46.6%
P3
53.0%
46.1%
OT
52.9%
48.4%
Final 5 min
53.4%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:17 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:07 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 12:16 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |