Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 15 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Zacha 49.2% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 15-12 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 84.5%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 71.6%
Neutral zone
Zacha 56.8%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Stenlund
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
15
(27 meetings)
12
15
Stenlund
Zacha
Last 10: Stenlund 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
13
Stenlund
Zacha
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
7
0
Stenlund
Zacha
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
2
Stenlund
Zacha
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
48.9% (5,156)
+6.4%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
55.7% (813)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
42.2% (557)
+8.2%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Stenlund shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,560).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Zacha
Home
54.3% (1,873)
49.7% (3,381)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
48.6% (3,145)
By Period
Stenlund
Zacha
P1
56.2%
49.9%
P2
53.3%
49.2%
P3
53.0%
48.2%
OT
52.9%
53.5%
Final 5 min
53.4%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:12 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 19:44 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 18:13 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 01:54 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 03:41 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:23 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 14:27 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 14:18 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 13:25 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:11 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 14:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |