Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Donato 44.7% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Donato 54.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 95.6%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 85.9%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Stenlund
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
8
(20 meetings)
12
8
Stenlund
Donato
Last 10: Stenlund 6-4 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
3
7
Stenlund
Donato
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
4
1
Stenlund
Donato
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
5
0
Stenlund
Donato
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
44.0% (1,218)
+11.3%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
46.0% (248)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
41.7% (12)
+8.7%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Stenlund shoots right. Donato is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (569).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Donato
Home
54.3% (1,873)
47.2% (743)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
41.4% (735)
By Period
Stenlund
Donato
P1
56.2%
43.8%
P2
53.3%
44.9%
P3
53.0%
43.7%
OT
52.9%
70.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:54 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 11:21 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 9, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 03:27 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 16:17 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 10:18 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:23 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 08:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 1 | 02:19 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 09:27 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 09:05 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 3 | 08:45 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |