Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Carrick 52.2% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Stenlund 52.6%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 56.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 50.5%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Stenlund
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Stenlund
Carrick
Last 10: Stenlund 3-7 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
4
2
Stenlund
Carrick
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Stenlund
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Stenlund
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
52.2% (2,544)
+3.1%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
61.3% (75)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
50.8% (435)
-0.4%
On power play, Carrick has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Stenlund is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (932).
Stenlund shoots right. Carrick is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (843).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Carrick
Home
54.3% (1,873)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Stenlund
Carrick
P1
56.2%
51.8%
P2
53.3%
52.3%
P3
53.0%
52.6%
OT
52.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:50 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:41 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 04:48 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 14:25 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 02:09 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 2 | 06:51 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 1 | 14:50 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 1 | 01:52 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |