Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs Kuraly 51.0% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 57.5%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 67.1%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 54.7%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Stenlund
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stenlund
Kuraly
Last 5: Stenlund 3-2 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Stenlund
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
1
Stenlund
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (650)
52.6% (464)
+3.6%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
100.0% (1)
-46.8%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (312)
46.5% (155)
+5.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +46.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Stenlund shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (235).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Kuraly
Home
56.9% (483)
55.9% (322)
Away
52.5% (526)
46.0% (298)
By Period
Stenlund
Kuraly
P1
54.2%
55.9%
P2
53.2%
46.7%
P3
56.9%
50.7%
OT
42.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:02 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:59 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:33 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 03:02 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |