Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Kuraly 50.4% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 12-7 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Stenlund 56.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 52.6%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 58.9%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Stenlund
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
12
(19 meetings)
7
12
Stenlund
Kuraly
Last 10: Stenlund 4-6 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stenlund
Kuraly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
7
Stenlund
Kuraly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Stenlund
Kuraly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
51.6% (5,161)
+3.7%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
56.4% (101)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
44.4% (1,091)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Stenlund shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (2,235).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Kuraly
Home
54.3% (1,873)
52.1% (3,205)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
48.8% (3,149)
By Period
Stenlund
Kuraly
P1
56.2%
51.2%
P2
53.3%
50.0%
P3
53.0%
50.2%
OT
52.9%
52.3%
Final 5 min
53.4%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:02 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:59 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:33 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 03:02 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 6, 2025 | OT | 03:43 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:47 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 10:32 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 1 | 01:39 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 17:25 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 18:15 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 18:51 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 16:50 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 06:09 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 03:09 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |