Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Stenlund wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.2% vs Aho 50.5% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 85.2%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 76.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 59.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 72.5%
27.5%
72.5%
Stenlund
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Stenlund
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Stenlund
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Stenlund
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (650)
50.5% (878)
+5.7%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
53.5% (144)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (312)
44.3% (61)
+7.3%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Stenlund shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Aho
Home
56.9% (483)
53.8% (571)
Away
52.5% (526)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Stenlund
Aho
P1
54.2%
49.0%
P2
53.2%
51.7%
P3
56.9%
50.3%
OT
42.1%
58.8%
Final 5 min
57.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 14:36 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |