Kevin Stenlund vs Sebastian Aho
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 18 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Aho 51.3% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 22-12 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 83.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 77.1%
Neutral zone
Aho 55.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 64.4%
35.6%
64.4%
Stenlund
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
22
(34 meetings)
12
22
Stenlund
Aho
Last 10: Stenlund 2-8 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
17
Stenlund
Aho
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
6
0
Stenlund
Aho
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Stenlund
Aho
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
50.2% (6,646)
+5.1%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
58.9% (1,310)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
46.5% (465)
+3.9%
On power play, Aho has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Stenlund shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Aho
Home
54.3% (1,873)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Stenlund
Aho
P1
56.2%
51.1%
P2
53.3%
52.1%
P3
53.0%
50.8%
OT
52.9%
48.9%
Final 5 min
53.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 14:36 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 18:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:34 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:16 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 14:52 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 06:49 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |