Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.0% vs 53.7%). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Nosek 53.6% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 61.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 60.4%
Neutral zone
Nosek 50.6%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Stenlund
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stenlund
Nosek
Last 7: Stenlund 4-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stenlund
Nosek
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Stenlund
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,738)
54.9% (2,710)
+0.4%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
45.8% (48)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (924)
47.2% (428)
+3.2%
On power play, Stenlund has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Stenlund shoots right. Nosek is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,227).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Nosek
Home
54.3% (1,873)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
53.8% (1,905)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Stenlund
Nosek
P1
56.2%
52.2%
P2
53.3%
54.1%
P3
53.0%
54.7%
OT
52.9%
75.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 04:27 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 01:44 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:42 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 00:50 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |