Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pederson 49.0% vs Monahan 51.2% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 51.5%
Defensive zone
Pederson 66.6%
Neutral zone
Pederson 63.5%
Result
Lane Pederson favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Pederson
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Pederson
Monahan
Last 7: Pederson 2-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Pederson
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Pederson
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pederson
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pederson
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (323)
51.1% (11,407)
-2.2%
Power Play
47.4% (19)
53.6% (2,582)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
45.9% (772)
-1.5%
On power play, Monahan has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Pederson is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (263).
Pederson shoots right. Monahan is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,426).
Home / Away
Pederson
Monahan
Home
53.1% (145)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
45.6% (206)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Pederson
Monahan
P1
49.6%
51.0%
P2
45.8%
51.7%
P3
50.9%
51.0%
Final 5 min
45.9%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pederson
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.7%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 12:01 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Lane Pederson |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Lane Pederson |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 02:29 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 02:16 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 06:57 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |