Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Carlsson 41.1% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 69.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 94.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 90.0%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 87.5%
87.5%
12.5%
Eller
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
7
(20 meetings)
13
7
Eller
Carlsson
Last 10: Eller 5-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
4
1
Eller
Carlsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
7
4
Eller
Carlsson
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Eller
Carlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,321)
40.9% (1,878)
+10.2%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
42.9% (156)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (1,759)
34.7% (121)
+11.9%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,142).
Eller shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,512).
Home / Away
Eller
Carlsson
Home
51.4% (6,122)
42.2% (1,051)
Away
49.7% (6,607)
39.2% (1,104)
By Period
Eller
Carlsson
P1
51.2%
43.3%
P2
50.1%
36.2%
P3
50.2%
43.3%
OT
56.7%
40.7%
Final 5 min
49.7%
39.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 02:30 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:23 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 05:04 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 02:07 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:03 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 06:51 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 04:42 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:49 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 01:38 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 12:07 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 01:51 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:58 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 11:51 | Neutral | Lars Eller |