Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Duchene 54.1% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 28-22 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 52.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 83.1%
Neutral zone
Eller 62.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Eller
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
28
(50 meetings)
22
28
Eller
Duchene
Last 10: Eller 4-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
10
Eller
Duchene
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
13
8
Eller
Duchene
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
10
Eller
Duchene
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,321)
53.9% (10,438)
-2.8%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
57.0% (1,677)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (1,759)
49.1% (468)
-2.5%
On power play, Duchene has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,142).
Eller shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Home / Away
Eller
Duchene
Home
51.4% (6,122)
55.6% (6,430)
Away
49.7% (6,607)
52.7% (6,177)
By Period
Eller
Duchene
P1
51.2%
54.4%
P2
50.1%
54.5%
P3
50.2%
53.4%
OT
56.7%
56.3%
Final 5 min
49.7%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2024 | 3 | 12:54 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 04:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 01:30 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 16:52 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 00:20 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 11:03 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 00:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 17:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 17:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 14:15 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 07:36 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 01:27 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Lars Eller |