Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 52.0% vs Sturm 59.0% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 79.8%
Defensive zone
Eller 77.6%
Neutral zone
Eller 75.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 78.5%
78.5%
21.5%
Eller
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
9
(9 meetings)
0
9
Eller
Sturm
Last 9: Eller 0-9 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
6
Eller
Sturm
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Eller
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (742)
60.6% (708)
-7.8%
Power Play
67.6% (34)
61.1% (18)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (156)
56.4% (101)
-10.2%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Eller shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Eller
Sturm
Home
54.5% (448)
61.6% (451)
Away
50.2% (484)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Eller
Sturm
P1
52.8%
55.9%
P2
50.9%
58.9%
P3
53.4%
64.6%
OT
50.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
55.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
52.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 08:55 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:36 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 06:48 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:34 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 04:43 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |