Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +19.5% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 56.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.0% vs Kelly 41.4% (+19.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 73.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 86.8%
Neutral zone
Eller 78.1%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 78.1%
78.1%
21.9%
Eller
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Eller
Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
2
0
Eller
Kelly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (459)
36.5% (159)
+19.5%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
0.0% (1)
+77.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (54)
38.5% (13)
+13.4%
On power play, Eller has a +77.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Eller is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Eller shoots left. Kelly is 37.3% vs left-shot opponents (110).
Home / Away
Eller
Kelly
Home
52.6% (215)
35.4% (79)
Away
58.3% (307)
37.2% (94)
By Period
Eller
Kelly
P1
54.1%
33.8%
P2
57.6%
36.5%
P3
56.2%
39.6%
Final 5 min
60.0%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
36.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:21 | Neutral | Lars Eller |