Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Kelly 41.7% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 91.9%
Defensive zone
Eller 82.3%
Neutral zone
Eller 86.3%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 87.3%
87.3%
12.7%
Eller
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
0
(7 meetings)
7
0
Eller
Kelly
Last 7: Eller 7-0 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
0
Eller
Kelly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
4
0
Eller
Kelly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,321)
42.0% (758)
+9.1%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
0.0% (3)
+52.8%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (1,759)
36.8% (174)
+9.8%
On power play, Eller has a +52.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,142).
Eller shoots left. Kelly is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (630).
Home / Away
Eller
Kelly
Home
51.4% (6,122)
42.4% (476)
Away
49.7% (6,607)
39.2% (459)
By Period
Eller
Kelly
P1
51.2%
42.3%
P2
50.1%
44.7%
P3
50.2%
35.6%
OT
56.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:21 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:03 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 08:17 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 02:18 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 11:19 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:25 | Neutral | Lars Eller |