Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lorentz on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Lorentz 48.5% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Lorentz leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Lorentz 67.2%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 61.3%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 65.2%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 64.6%
35.4%
64.6%
Eller
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Eller
Lorentz
Last 10: Eller 2-8 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
4
Eller
Lorentz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
3
Eller
Lorentz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Eller
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,321)
48.9% (1,125)
+2.2%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
50.0% (26)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (1,759)
41.8% (91)
+4.8%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,142).
Eller shoots left. Lorentz is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Eller
Lorentz
Home
51.4% (6,122)
50.6% (609)
Away
49.7% (6,607)
46.3% (633)
By Period
Eller
Lorentz
P1
51.2%
53.0%
P2
50.1%
46.7%
P3
50.2%
46.2%
OT
56.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:32 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:32 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:44 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:30 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 17:54 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:08 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 09:04 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 12:13 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |