Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.9% vs 56.5%). Eller wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.0% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 80.4%
Defensive zone
Eller 73.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 58.1%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 73.3%
73.3%
26.7%
Eller
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Eller
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (459)
57.1% (368)
-1.1%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
55.2% (96)
+22.6%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (54)
50.0% (10)
+1.9%
On power play, Eller has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Eller is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Eller shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Eller
Stamkos
Home
52.6% (215)
53.9% (230)
Away
58.3% (307)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Eller
Stamkos
P1
54.1%
56.7%
P2
57.6%
54.1%
P3
56.2%
59.2%
Final 5 min
60.0%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:19 | Defensive | Lars Eller |