Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 51.1%). Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (66% H2H, 41 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 66-51 in 117 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 58.7%
Defensive zone
Eller 75.3%
Neutral zone
Eller 60.4%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Eller
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
51
-
66
(117 meetings)
51
66
Eller
Stamkos
Last 10: Eller 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
11
23
Eller
Stamkos
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
26
16
Eller
Stamkos
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
14
27
Eller
Stamkos
41 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,321)
50.5% (9,825)
+0.6%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
55.2% (1,729)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (1,759)
49.6% (827)
-3.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,587).
Eller shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Eller
Stamkos
Home
51.4% (6,122)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
49.7% (6,607)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Eller
Stamkos
P1
51.2%
49.2%
P2
50.1%
52.7%
P3
50.2%
50.9%
OT
56.7%
54.3%
Final 5 min
49.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:19 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 14:32 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 10:31 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 15:55 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 15:28 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:23 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 13, 2022 | 1 | 15:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 08:41 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 01:56 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 3 | 13:31 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 3 | 13:06 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 3 | 06:52 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 3 | 01:03 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |