Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Eller wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.0% vs Thompson 45.2% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 53.4%
Defensive zone
Eller 79.8%
Neutral zone
Eller 61.3%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Eller
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Eller
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
1
Eller
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (459)
44.6% (661)
+11.4%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
48.4% (95)
+29.4%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (54)
33.3% (33)
+18.6%
On power play, Eller has a +29.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Eller is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Eller shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Eller
Thompson
Home
52.6% (215)
45.7% (411)
Away
58.3% (307)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Eller
Thompson
P1
54.1%
47.7%
P2
57.6%
45.7%
P3
56.2%
40.5%
Final 5 min
60.0%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:07 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Lars Eller |