Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Thompson 42.8% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 19-14 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 64.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 86.9%
Neutral zone
Eller 80.1%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 75.9%
75.9%
24.1%
Eller
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
14
(33 meetings)
19
14
Eller
Thompson
Last 10: Eller 6-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
5
7
Eller
Thompson
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
6
2
Eller
Thompson
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
8
5
Eller
Thompson
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,321)
42.9% (3,540)
+8.2%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
46.9% (373)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (1,759)
33.6% (265)
+13.0%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,587).
Eller shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,029).
Home / Away
Eller
Thompson
Home
51.4% (6,122)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
49.7% (6,607)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Eller
Thompson
P1
51.2%
44.4%
P2
50.1%
43.7%
P3
50.2%
40.0%
OT
56.7%
36.4%
Final 5 min
49.7%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:07 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:59 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:11 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 03:26 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 19:40 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:41 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:06 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:34 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 3, 2023 | OT | 02:44 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 07:10 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 15:03 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |