Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Eller wins 56.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.0% vs Hertl 57.5% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 94.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 57.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 79.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
Eller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Eller
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
3
0
Eller
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (459)
58.7% (858)
-2.7%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
55.8% (285)
+22.0%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (54)
62.9% (35)
-11.0%
On power play, Eller has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Eller is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Eller shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Eller
Hertl
Home
52.6% (215)
60.1% (599)
Away
58.3% (307)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Eller
Hertl
P1
54.1%
52.4%
P2
57.6%
63.9%
P3
56.2%
58.5%
Final 5 min
60.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:38 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 07:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 02:21 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 01:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |