Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (74% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 50.5% vs Hertl 54.3% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 26-25 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 64.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 74.4%
Neutral zone
Eller 57.3%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Eller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
26
(51 meetings)
25
26
Eller
Hertl
Last 10: Eller 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
12
Eller
Hertl
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
17
6
Eller
Hertl
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
8
Eller
Hertl
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (10,321)
53.9% (8,303)
-2.8%
Power Play
52.8% (621)
59.2% (1,995)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (1,759)
46.3% (806)
+0.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,142).
Eller shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Eller
Hertl
Home
51.4% (6,122)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
49.7% (6,607)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Eller
Hertl
P1
51.2%
53.6%
P2
50.1%
54.2%
P3
50.2%
55.3%
OT
56.7%
46.9%
Final 5 min
49.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:38 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 07:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 02:21 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 01:58 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 17:03 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 16:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 07:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 17:01 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:14 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 14:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |