Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 56.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.0% vs Gourde 46.0% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 65.8%
Defensive zone
Eller 65.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 57.8%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Eller
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Eller
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
0
Eller
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Eller
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (459)
47.2% (687)
+8.8%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
45.0% (20)
+32.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (54)
33.0% (88)
+18.9%
On power play, Eller has a +32.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Eller is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Eller shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Eller
Gourde
Home
52.6% (215)
44.4% (356)
Away
58.3% (307)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Eller
Gourde
P1
54.1%
42.2%
P2
57.6%
50.0%
P3
56.2%
44.5%
Final 5 min
60.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 02:15 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 17:52 | Offensive | Lars Eller |