Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Scheifele 47.2% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 60.8%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 69.5%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 57.7%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Carlsson
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Carlsson
Scheifele
Last 8: Carlsson 3-5 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
3
Carlsson
Scheifele
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
1
Carlsson
Scheifele
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
1
Carlsson
Scheifele
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
46.5% (919)
-1.5%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
48.7% (187)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
50.0% (54)
-17.1%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. Scheifele is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (901).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Scheifele
Home
42.5% (435)
46.6% (605)
Away
45.5% (429)
47.4% (555)
By Period
Carlsson
Scheifele
P1
45.3%
52.3%
P2
38.7%
45.3%
P3
48.5%
43.9%
OT
41.7%
27.3%
Final 5 min
38.4%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:32 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |