Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs Scheifele 46.8% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 65.6%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 70.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 67.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
Carlsson
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Carlsson
Scheifele
Last 10: Carlsson 3-7 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
4
Carlsson
Scheifele
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
3
Carlsson
Scheifele
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Carlsson
Scheifele
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
46.3% (12,077)
-5.4%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
50.2% (2,576)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
41.6% (598)
-6.9%
On power play, Scheifele has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Carlsson is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Carlsson shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,862).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Scheifele
Home
42.2% (1,051)
48.9% (7,678)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
44.7% (7,574)
By Period
Carlsson
Scheifele
P1
43.3%
48.2%
P2
36.2%
45.6%
P3
43.3%
46.8%
OT
40.7%
42.5%
Final 5 min
39.8%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:32 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2025 | OT | 01:25 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:27 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 00:52 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |