Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Geekie 47.7% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 75.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 57.0%
Neutral zone
Geekie 59.1%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 59.4%
40.6%
59.4%
Carlsson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Carlsson
Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Geekie
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Geekie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
46.7% (120)
-1.7%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
48.6% (35)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
0.0% (3)
+32.9%
On penalty kill, Carlsson has a +32.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. Geekie is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (99).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Geekie
Home
42.5% (435)
46.8% (77)
Away
45.5% (429)
45.7% (81)
By Period
Carlsson
Geekie
P1
45.3%
42.4%
P2
38.7%
49.1%
P3
48.5%
47.6%
OT
41.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
38.4%
35.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Geekie
46.0%▬
47.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |