Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Geekie on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 42.0% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.4% vs Geekie 48.4% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Geekie leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 56.6%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 56.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 57.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Carlsson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Carlsson
Geekie
Last 10: Carlsson 4-6 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Geekie
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
2
Carlsson
Geekie
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
2
Carlsson
Geekie
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (1,716)
48.7% (2,289)
-7.6%
Power Play
42.8% (152)
45.9% (183)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (116)
45.7% (129)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Geekie has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Carlsson is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (593).
Carlsson shoots left. Geekie is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,909).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Geekie
Home
42.9% (956)
50.0% (1,277)
Away
39.1% (1,028)
46.8% (1,324)
By Period
Carlsson
Geekie
P1
44.2%
48.4%
P2
35.8%
48.9%
P3
43.5%
47.5%
OT
41.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.8%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
40.0%▼
43.5%
40.9%
Geekie
42.0%▼
44.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:25 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:29 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 03:15 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |