Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Bjugstad 49.5% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 71.7%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 56.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 54.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Carlsson
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
49.7% (292)
-4.7%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
50.0% (6)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
47.2% (36)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Home
42.5% (435)
48.7% (193)
Away
45.5% (429)
50.4% (141)
By Period
Carlsson
Bjugstad
P1
45.3%
41.5%
P2
38.7%
57.3%
P3
48.5%
50.0%
OT
41.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
38.4%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 05:13 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 02:53 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 15:03 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |