Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 10-1 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 78.8%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 86.3%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 79.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 79.8%
79.8%
20.2%
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
10
(11 meetings)
1
10
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Last 10: Carlsson 1-9 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
3
Carlsson
Bjugstad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Carlsson
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
6
Carlsson
Bjugstad
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
48.6% (6,646)
-7.7%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
55.2% (829)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
44.3% (614)
-9.6%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Carlsson is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Carlsson shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,753).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Home
42.2% (1,051)
49.8% (4,023)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
48.1% (4,066)
By Period
Carlsson
Bjugstad
P1
43.3%
48.9%
P2
36.2%
49.1%
P3
43.3%
48.5%
OT
40.7%
61.3%
Final 5 min
39.8%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 05:13 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 02:53 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 15:03 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 13:47 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 03:29 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 10:17 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |