Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs Zacha 49.2% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 79.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 79.3%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 72.0%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Carlsson
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
14
(23 meetings)
9
14
Carlsson
Zacha
Last 10: Carlsson 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
3
9
Carlsson
Zacha
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
0
Carlsson
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
3
5
Carlsson
Zacha
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
48.9% (5,156)
-8.0%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
55.7% (813)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
42.2% (557)
-7.5%
On power play, Zacha has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,512).
Carlsson shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,965).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Zacha
Home
42.2% (1,051)
49.7% (3,381)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
48.6% (3,145)
By Period
Carlsson
Zacha
P1
43.3%
49.9%
P2
36.2%
49.2%
P3
43.3%
48.2%
OT
40.7%
53.5%
Final 5 min
39.8%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:31 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 15:27 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:10 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:29 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:24 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:02 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 04:13 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:49 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:57 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:01 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |