Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +18.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Carlsson wins 33.5% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 37.1% vs Thomas 52.9% (-18.3%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 87.8%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 86.3%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 87.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 87.2%
87.2%
12.8%
Carlsson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
12
(18 meetings)
6
12
Carlsson
Thomas
Last 10: Carlsson 3-7 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Thomas
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
7
Carlsson
Thomas
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
4
3
Carlsson
Thomas
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
34.4% (535)
53.2% (1,166)
-18.8%
Power Play
42.9% (21)
56.9% (262)
-14.0%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
48.4% (221)
-8.4%
On even strength, Thomas has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Carlsson is 33.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Carlsson shoots left. Thomas is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Thomas
Home
38.6% (254)
51.6% (830)
Away
31.6% (307)
54.7% (819)
By Period
Carlsson
Thomas
P1
35.9%
52.7%
P2
33.8%
55.6%
P3
34.3%
50.6%
OT
44.4%
61.5%
Final 5 min
36.8%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
34.8%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 13:53 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 08:04 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 04:50 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 12:07 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 09:17 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 2 | 16:07 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 2 | 15:48 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 3 | 11:56 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 3 | 05:33 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 2 | 03:47 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 1 | 08:20 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |