Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs Thomas 51.6% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 20-12 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 91.6%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 88.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 89.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 89.6%
89.6%
10.4%
Carlsson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
20
(32 meetings)
12
20
Carlsson
Thomas
Last 10: Carlsson 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
4
Carlsson
Thomas
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
8
Carlsson
Thomas
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
8
8
Carlsson
Thomas
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
51.1% (5,387)
-10.2%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
55.8% (927)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
50.2% (697)
-15.5%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Carlsson is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Carlsson shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,967).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Thomas
Home
42.2% (1,051)
50.9% (3,484)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
52.3% (3,527)
By Period
Carlsson
Thomas
P1
43.3%
50.7%
P2
36.2%
53.0%
P3
43.3%
50.8%
OT
40.7%
59.2%
Final 5 min
39.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 03:12 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 15:22 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:25 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:33 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:06 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 12:14 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 13:53 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 08:04 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 04:50 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 12:07 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 09:17 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |