Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Donato 47.1% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 53.1%
Defensive zone
Donato 51.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 54.4%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Carlsson
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Carlsson
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
46.8% (297)
-1.8%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
41.0% (39)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
100.0% (1)
-67.1%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +67.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Carlsson is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Carlsson shoots left. Donato is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (189).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Donato
Home
42.5% (435)
45.8% (142)
Away
45.5% (429)
46.7% (195)
By Period
Carlsson
Donato
P1
45.3%
49.5%
P2
38.7%
45.7%
P3
48.5%
43.4%
OT
41.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
38.4%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:33 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |