Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Hartman 45.6% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 55.2%
Defensive zone
Hartman 61.1%
Neutral zone
Hartman 55.2%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Carlsson
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Carlsson
Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
0
Carlsson
Hartman
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (695)
45.1% (874)
-0.1%
Power Play
46.4% (84)
47.4% (95)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
32.9% (85)
37.5% (16)
-4.6%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Carlsson shoots left. Hartman is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Hartman
Home
42.5% (435)
45.0% (515)
Away
45.5% (429)
45.3% (470)
By Period
Carlsson
Hartman
P1
45.3%
47.3%
P2
38.7%
40.1%
P3
48.5%
48.3%
OT
41.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
38.4%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:02 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 06:11 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |