Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.1% vs Hartman 45.4% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 57.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 54.6%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 57.0%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Carlsson
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Carlsson
Hartman
Last 7: Carlsson 3-4 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
3
Carlsson
Hartman
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
1
Carlsson
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (1,878)
45.2% (4,279)
-4.3%
Power Play
42.9% (156)
47.3% (446)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (121)
42.4% (262)
-7.7%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Carlsson is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Carlsson shoots left. Hartman is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,596).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Hartman
Home
42.2% (1,051)
46.7% (2,589)
Away
39.2% (1,104)
43.7% (2,398)
By Period
Carlsson
Hartman
P1
43.3%
46.1%
P2
36.2%
42.9%
P3
43.3%
46.7%
OT
40.7%
53.8%
Final 5 min
39.8%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:02 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 06:11 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:11 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:37 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |